Market Overview
Wheat / Barley / Maize
As of 29th October, the US winter wheat plantings are 84% complete compared to 85% this time last year.
Condition ratings for US winter wheat are 47% good to excellent, well above the 28% rating this time last year.
Ukraine’s grain exports for October have almost halved year on year to 2.15MT from 4.22MT.
Competitive Black Sea grain supplies continue to weigh on global markets.
Welcome rainfall in South America has offered pressure to global markets following a period of drought and heat stress.
Heavy rainfall in Western Europe and the UK have halted wheat drilling. Results from the Cereal Quality Survey confirm lower quality for both wheat and barley from the 2023 UK harvest, mainly due to the poor weather conditions.
The US maize harvest is at 71% complete, well above the 66% average pace. The EU harvest is at 85% complete, also above the 74% average pace.
Brazil are expected to produce 119.4MT of maize during this crop cycle (2023/2024). However 76% of this crop has not been planted yet and the potential of an El Nino weather event could compromise maize yields and in turn, global supply.
Hi Pro Soya / Rapemeal
Weather in Brazil is now at a critical watchpoint, which is driving both short and long term sentiment. Following recent dry weather, forecasts for some rainfall is welcome news for key growing areas.
Brazil are expected to produce a 163MT soybean crop but weather over the next two weeks is critical for planting and early development.
Recent reports suggest soybean planting in Brazil is at 38.4% in some key growing areas, well behind 52.3% seen this time last year.
The US soybean harvest is progressing well and ahead of the five year average trend of 85% complete.
For rapeseed prices prices, short term support for soybeans has filtered into rapeseed prices. If a large South American soybean crop is realised, prices could come under pressure.
Australia have had the driest September on record. The USDA expects the Australian rapeseed crop to drop from 8.3MT to 5.1MT.
Domestic rapeseed prices remain competitive to Hi Pro Soya.
