Market Overview
Wheat / Barley / Maize
UK wheat production is expected to be down by 1.5MT on the year at 14MT due to a smaller planted area.
The reduced production will likely offset higher volumes of carryover stock and an increase in import volumes.
Cheap & abundant Russian wheat continues to weigh on the market.
Polish farmers and HGV drivers continue to block border crossings between Poland and Ukraine. Polish farmers are unhappy with cheap Ukrainian grain imports which have affected trade in Poland.
The discount of barley to wheat in the UK has widened to £15/T in the southwest. In the north this is closer to £25/T due to the Scottish malting barley being rejected and going into the feed chain. UK farmer selling on barley has slowed due to domestic prices.
Brazil are currently experiencing maize planting issues with the possibility of 10% less acres.
Despite these concerns, the large forecast for Brazilian maize at 129MT will be key for the 2023/2024 outlook, if realised.
The US maize harvest is officially complete with a record 387MT harvested.
In Argentina, maize planting is ahead of last years pace with crops planted so far looking good. The USDA forecast Argentina to produce 55MT for 2023/2024.
Hi Pro Soya / Rapemeal
Weather in Brazil remains a key watchpoint for markets. Hot & dry weather conditions in Northern and Central Brazil have supported markets recently.
The USDA forecast Brazil to produce 163MT of soybeans for 2023/2024. If realised, this would be a record crop and could pressure markets long term.
However, Brazil soybean plantings are lagging behind last years pace with 74.7% of the crop planted. This time last year 88.3% of the crop was planted.
In Argentina, farmers are holding back selling soybeans ahead of the inauguration of president elect Javier Milei. This has reduced soybean crush in Argentina which in turn has offered support to global prices.
Domestic rapeseed prices have risen on the back of the recent gains seen for hi pro soya and lack of supply in ports.
The USDA have increased global rapeseed production to 85.6MT. The next critical watchpoint will be European crop conditions.
