Market Overview
Wheat/Barley
Competitive and abundant Russian wheat continues to pressure market as does global demand.
President Biden and German Government pledge state of the art Tanks to Ukraine. Russia are aggravated by the news and any potential rise in conflict could threaten Black Sea Grain Deal.
Australia wheat production is expected to be a record 42 million tonnes as results from the final phase of harvest show higher yields in the world’s second-largest exporter of the grain.
ADHB repot 59% of US Winter Wheat located in drought areas, recent rain and snow have eased fears regarding potential crop damage.
US winter wheat area for harvest 2023 expected to be up 11% on last year, the highest level in 8 years.
Chinese demand, US weather conditions and the Black Sea Grain deal will be watch points for market direction.
Maize
Argentina’s maize now 88.6% planted vs. 87.9% last year. The maize is rated 47% poor/very poor, 48% fair and 5% good/excellent.
US maize shipments for 2022/2023 reach 11.5 million tonnes, down 30% from last year due to a drop in global demand.
A record maize crop from Brazil is forecast at 125MT. However, a possible 2 week delay to their soya harvest could impact maize planting and cut production levels.
Hi Pro Soya/Rapemeal
Following weeks of drought, Argentina welcome rain which will ease crop production cuts for now. Forecasts vary from 35 million tonnes to the USDA figure of 45.5 million tonnes.
Argentina soybeans were 95.5% planted as of last week vs 98.6% last year vs. 98.3% average.
Potential two week delay for Brazil Soya harvest due to heavy rains. However Brazil still on course for record crop of 152 million tonnes.
Short-term rapeseed markets follow the pressure in soybeans. There could be longer-term pressure from Germany’s announcement to phase out crop-based biofuels, reducing demand for rapeseed.
