Wheat/Barley
Continued concerns over tensions between Russia and Ukraine have pushed up global wheat prices this week. Potential conflict between the two nations is a cause for concern as both are major exporters of wheat. Ukraine, which is often regarded as the breadbasket of Europe, and Russia account for 29% of the wheat trade.
Crops in the Black Sea region are reported to be at potential risk of frost damage in some areas. Morocco has reported ongoing drought which has negatively impacted crops and wheat crops in Texas are now reported to be rated 71% poor or very poor, up 45% from November.
Old crop barley supplies globally remain tight, keeping prices close to those for wheat. The outlook for barley in 2022/23 is not yet clear and will need to be watched closely due to low global stocks. Ukraine is expected to account for 18% of Barley exports this year so potential disruption will have an impact on price direction.
Soya
Improved weather conditions in Brazil has meant harvest reaching 5% complete. Yields are so far considered to be ‘satisfactory’ in some key areas but low yields are being seen further south. Hot dry conditions remain in southern areas of Brazil and through Northern Argentina and Paraguay.
China’s soybean imports in December from the U.S. almost doubled compared to November as more cargoes arrived after delays due to Hurricane Ida. China imported 6.09 MMT U.S. soybeans in December, up 68% from 3.63 MMT in November and up 4.0% from December 2020, according to customs data.
In the short term soya and rapeseed prices have eased due to long awaited shipments expected to arrive later this week. However, if the poor weather continues to impact yields we could see prices gain support.
Maize
Rain in areas of Argentina last week was welcome but patchy and too late for early maize yields, according to both the Buenos Aries and Rosario Grain Exchanges. More rain is forecast in parts of Argentina, which will likely help later planted maize, as well as crops still to be planted, however accuracy of forecasts are in debate.
