Market Overview
Wheat / Barley / Maize
Abundant cheap wheat from Russia has put pressure on global wheat prices over the past few months.
Russia’s 2024 wheat crop is estimated at 92.2MT, just short of last years record crop. The Russian wheat price has fallen in the last couple weeks which has made exports even more competitive.
Global cereal prices remain under pressure and with new crop a premium over old, growers are reluctant sellers and have shut the barn doors!
The UK is expecting a 12MT wheat crop for 2024, down from 14MT seen last year. However reports suggest a larger 2024 barley harvest for the EU & UK based on more spring barley acres and a rebound in Spain.
Short-term, barley has become in tight supply in the Southwest due to the current market prices.
US farmers have become reluctant to sell maize as prices become close to or below cost of production. This could result in fewer planted acres.
The USDA currently estimates the US 2024 maize crop at 390MT, up from 347MT seen last year. However , this figure would be cut if fewer acres are planted.
Uncertainty persists over Brazil’s second maize crop due to prior adverse weather, with planting now underway.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s maize production has benefited from improved rains this season as production has been forecast to reach 56.5MT. This is up 1.5MT from the previous estimate and up 66% from last year.
Global 2023/2024 maize ending stocks (Exc China) are up 19MT year on year, with the stocks:use ratio at a five year high.
Hi Pro Soya / Rapemeal
Large soybean supplies from South America have pressed markets. Collectively Brazil & Argentina are expected to produce 52% of the global soybean supply at 207MT. This is up from last season where they accounted for 49% at a collective 185MT.
Argentina’s soybean production has rebounded from 25MT seen last season, with estimates form 2024 at 50MT.
There is some doubt in the market regarding Brazil’s soybean crop. Adverse weather conditions seen over the past few weeks have caused production figures to be cut back to 157MT by the USDA. Many private forecasters expect further cuts to be made in a range of 137MT – 157MT. If realised we could see a rebound in global soybean prices.
A lot of good news has been priced in the market recently so the next few weeks will be vital for market direction.
Rapeseed supplies are likely to tighten in Europe next season by 1MT. This is due to poor autumn weather and a reduction in planted area.
Despite this a large South American soybean crop could give pressure to rapeseed prices.
