Market Overview
Wheat / Barley / Maize
The UK cereal harvest is currently underway!
The UK is projected to produce 11MT of wheat, this is down from the 13.98MT seen last year.
The chaotic weather seen across Europe over the past few weeks has led to a very poor production outlook for EU wheat.
Between the UK, EU, Russia and Ukraine, the combined wheat production is expected to be down 16MT from last year. However, this is mostly going to be offset by improved production figures seen in the US, Canada, Australia and Argentina. All four are expected to increase their crop by up to 14MT combined.
Cheap US supplies of wheat have kept a cap on UK & EU prices. UK prices are unlikely to rise unless we see higher US markets going forward.
For barley, higher yield results in the EU is adding to the expectation of an increased global supply. However higher demand for feed barley and weather concerns in the Black Sea region could keep prices steady for the long term.
The UK winter barley harvest has progressed well over the past week due to improved weather conditions and is estimated at 50% complete. UK barley is currently trading at a £25/T discount to wheat.
The US are projected to produce 384MT of maize for 2024, a six year high. Global maize prices have acted as a ceiling to wheat prices and remains competitive.
Long term global maize prices could be influenced be the ample US supply and any ongoing weather concerns.
Hi Pro Soya / Rapemeal
Ample global supply of soybeans will likely keep global prices under pressure.
The US soybean crop is estimated at 121MT this year compared to 113MT seen last year. Brazil & Argentina are expected to produce 220MT combined, up from 202MT seen last year.
Short term, the key market influences will be weather conditions in the US and South America. Long term influences are more difficult.
There is no current resolution to the potential EU deforestation regulations (EUDR). Soya is currently available to purchase for 2024 and for early 2025 in the South-West but none is EUDR compliant.
Talks have suggested the EUDR regulations could come into force from January 2025. We will endeavour to keep all customers updated when there is more clarity and further discussions have taken place.
Rapemeal production in the UK & EU is declining with low yields being reported.
Unfavourable weather conditions seen in Canada during a key crop development stage could also lend support to global prices. Domestic apemeal prices are currently averaging at 75% of the price of Hi Pro Soya and which makes soya a more competitive product.
