Wheat/Barley
The crisis between Ukraine and Russia, two of the worlds biggest wheat and maize producers, has caused constant volatility for the commodities. Anything from a political statement to a rumour has influenced the global market prices.
Any disruption to exports or shipments would push more demand onto EU and US wheat and give support to global wheat prices. There has been cautious optimism that conflict can be avoided, following news of a pull back of Russian Military forces in some areas and comments made by the Russian Foreign minister on Monday. SovEcon has raised its forecast of 2022 Russian wheat production by 3.6Mt. The crop is now estimated at 84.8Mt, increase is due to favourable weather
The upcoming US Wheat crop is reported to be threatened by drought in the Southern Plains and crops from Spain and Portugal are quoted as unpleasant due to a dry winter. In recent days we have seen the gap between wheat and barley widen after weeks of trading at similar levels.
Soya
Global soybean prices began to ease yesterday on the back of potential rainfall in parts of South America, which could improve conditions for later planted crops. This was after an initial prices rise as more private forecasters reduced their production estimates for the Brazilian Soybean crop. The forecasts now estimate the crop at 125.5MT due to the effects of the dry weather previously seen.
Brazilian Soybean crop harvest was 25% complete by Saturday. Chinas has been busy booking new crop soybeans out of the US, with January Sales as high as 1.9MT. Although down from a record 3.0MT last year, this is well above average for this period.
Maize
News that Ukraine and Russia could avoid conflict may ease global maize prices, as Ukraine is the worlds fifth largest producer of Maize for animal feed. The reduced fears regarding export disruption out of the country could offer pressure on maize prices in the global market.
Currently planting progression for the second maize crop in Brazil is at 35%, considerably better than the same point last year when this was 10%. Crop development is a watch point from now until harvest starts in May. Brazil is still forecast a record a total maize crop of 112Mt.
